Friday, November 21, 2008

The Powder Keg and the Match

This one is a response to beebs,

It doesn't take much to make a simple nuke that could be transported in a shipping container. When we were working on our bomb we had two designs, only one of them did we bother to test before use (implosion version). The other is so simple almost any physics major today could build it if they had some enriched Uranium. The Iranians really don't need to make Plutonium they just need to enrich enough Uranium to make one of the simple type bombs. Then they just need to ship it to Israel or one of her neighbors via ship or truck. That is what makes the situation so very scary and the Israelis so damn nervous. We don’t have to worry about the Iranians making a bomb that will fit on the top of a missile (this is the type the NIE was talking about) because they have enough friends that hate Israel to sneak one or two close and we all know that close is good enough for nukes.

I don’t think that we are going to want to join in the fun and Obama will be tempted to let Israel swing, but lets be honest Iran is going to see a target rich environment in Iraq and the Gulf. We probably won’t have a lot of choice in whether we are caught up in the mess. This isn’t going to be pretty and I just don’t see how we are going to keep Israel from acting in its own best interest. What we can’t understand as Americans is that Israel really has nothing to lose in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. They are already under constant attack from Iranian proxies on all sides and they can’t just sit back and wait for a nuke to detonate in Tel Aviv before they act. Do I think that this is just saber rattling? No. Iran has nothing to lose by trying to nuke Israel and Israel has to protect themselves from that possibility. We said Iraq would never invade Kuwait because that would not make sense from a Western standpoint, but they did didn’t they.

I hope that I am wrong about this whole crazy thing, but more often than not we clearly do not have a handle on the Middle East. We don’t think people could be so stupid and wouldn’t do something that would clearly lead to their destruction, but that leads back to the First Gulf War. The whole situation is a powder keg and the only remaining question is who is going to light the match.

4 comments:

  1. I don't think you have a very good idea of who the Iranians are and how their heads work.

    They may be the least dangerous group in the Middle East, although that's not saying much. They have lost every war they have been engaged in for a thousand years and come out of each one better than they went in. They are talkers. They posture and scream, they never fight willingly and always lose if they do. They are surrounded by warrior races that do it so much better.

    The Pahlavis were not Iranian. They were a dangerous bunch. We should have let Mossedeh alone and that is all the current group want.

    You expect them to like us after what we have and continue to do to them?

    The Israelis are in no danger at all. They are ruthless killers with the fourth biggest nuclear arsenal in the World and no compunction about using it. They constantly whine about genocide, ignore it if it's not happening to them and practice it like it was their own invention. They are not anybody's friend, especially ours. They use American Jews, for money, influence and espionage but despise them almost as much as the rest of us.

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  2. I'm somewhat biased. I had a good friend who was Iranian. He told me, "Beebs, all Iran wants a chance to be like America. They hate the mullahs."

    It irritates me because Iran is generally cooperating with the IAEA. Our NIE says they don't have a bomb program. Yet, one article in the NYTimes and everyone thinks they'll hit Israel. A careful researcher will realize that Israel has hundreds of nuclear warheads, and she can deliver them if she is attacked.

    So why would Iran attack with a bomb or two? Iran wouldn't.

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  3. Here's another point that I forgot to make.

    France has nuclear bombs. So does Pakistan and India. Why not Iran?

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  4. The thing with Iran is that allowing them to have the bomb is not a good plan since they are a government sponsor terrorism. I would love to stick my head in the sand and say that the Iranians are just rattling sabres and that it will be okay to let them have the bomb because they would never use it just like everybody else. But that just isn't possible because I know more than I am saying and life isn't always so black and white.

    Sure the government of Iran doesn't reflect the people, but so what, that won't stop them from doing something stupid because it hasn't yet. They have an enemies that everyone either hates outright or secretly wishes evil on (dancing in the streets after 9/11). Europe is going to do nothing and Russia and China are in the bag for Iran, so you tell me the downside of killing their greatest enemy and possibly bring about their end times prophecy. What is holding them back?

    The best we can hope for is that Russia and China leading the UN into forcing both Iran and Israel to disarm their nukes for a guarenteed peace (not going to happen). The worse thing is an attack by Israel but Iran already has a nuke and uses it for "defense". This will light up the entire region and it only gets worse from there. In reality, it will fall somewhere in the middle and things might cool down after Israel delays Iran's nuke program a couple of months or years.

    Yeah, I would like to sit here and say everything is going to be just great and that this won't grow into a huge flare up with us caught in the middle. I am full of sunshine and roses, but I won't hold my breath that Israel won't take matters into its own hands sooner than later.

    Keep the dialog coming and maybe we can find another solution.

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