This one is a response to beebs,
It doesn't take much to make a simple nuke that could be transported in a shipping container. When we were working on our bomb we had two designs, only one of them did we bother to test before use (implosion version). The other is so simple almost any physics major today could build it if they had some enriched Uranium. The Iranians really don't need to make Plutonium they just need to enrich enough Uranium to make one of the simple type bombs. Then they just need to ship it to Israel or one of her neighbors via ship or truck. That is what makes the situation so very scary and the Israelis so damn nervous. We don’t have to worry about the Iranians making a bomb that will fit on the top of a missile (this is the type the NIE was talking about) because they have enough friends that hate Israel to sneak one or two close and we all know that close is good enough for nukes.
I don’t think that we are going to want to join in the fun and Obama will be tempted to let Israel swing, but lets be honest Iran is going to see a target rich environment in Iraq and the Gulf. We probably won’t have a lot of choice in whether we are caught up in the mess. This isn’t going to be pretty and I just don’t see how we are going to keep Israel from acting in its own best interest. What we can’t understand as Americans is that Israel really has nothing to lose in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. They are already under constant attack from Iranian proxies on all sides and they can’t just sit back and wait for a nuke to detonate in Tel Aviv before they act. Do I think that this is just saber rattling? No. Iran has nothing to lose by trying to nuke Israel and Israel has to protect themselves from that possibility. We said Iraq would never invade Kuwait because that would not make sense from a Western standpoint, but they did didn’t they.
I hope that I am wrong about this whole crazy thing, but more often than not we clearly do not have a handle on the Middle East. We don’t think people could be so stupid and wouldn’t do something that would clearly lead to their destruction, but that leads back to the First Gulf War. The whole situation is a powder keg and the only remaining question is who is going to light the match.