Wednesday, July 2, 2008

The Next War

It is scary to see that the US, Israel, and Iran are getting ready to go head to head. The saber rattling is getting pretty loud and we all know that it isn't just rattling. It is understandable that Israel has taken offense to the rhetoric coming out of Tehran and is planning to take care of the situation themselves. If anyone can sit there and tell me that this isn't going to turn out badly for all involved I would like to hear it.

The US will have to decide what they are going to do when Israel's jets start flying over Iraq on their way to Iran. Will they shoot them down? I seriously doubt that would happen. Would they scramble our fighters to protect Iraqi airspace from Iranian jets? This seems pretty likely, so that would draw us into the conflict whether we wanted to be or not. Then there is the question of we will respond diplomatically because you know that the UN and EU are going to trip over themselves to condemn Israel and the US.

Then there will be the domestic issues raised here at home as oil prices skyrocket as OPEC sides with Iran and embargoes the US and Israel. We think things are tough now, but wait and see what happens when we are cut-off from Arab oil and must rely on Canada, Mexico? and our own domestic oil. The good news is that with all that we are doing now to conserve and find new sources we should be good to go right? The fact that we have a strategic reserve is of little comfort since it would be quickly exhausted.

We would definitely start rationing not only oil, but just about everything else as well. Plus, we would need to find new sources of cheap consumer goods since China would embargo us as well. I am sure that we would tighten our belts and weather this storm, but things won't be getting any better because our supposed friends in Europe and Russia would take the opportunity to kick us while we are down. They would readily jump on the anti-Israel/US bandwagon and say we have it coming for being so arrogant.

How long before the US economy completely collapses? How long will we hold out against the overwhelming tide of isolation and deprivation? Then there is always the fun and games of retaliatory strikes by Iran and her allies against Israel and the US. Israel will be fighting for its very existence, while the lost of American lives in Iraq would be astronomical as Iran floods the country with conventional and non-conventional forces. There is no telling how the Iraqis are going to react, but it isn't likely to be favorable. Just think about how we would get our troops out of there under constant fire and with little assistance from any other country.

This is a best case scenario because things could go nuclear for a number of different reasons and then things would really get interesting. You might think that I am talking out of my @$$, but this isn't that far fetched and if you don't believe me read "Epicenter" by Joel C. Rosenberg. I am not some end of the world crazy, but this is really scary stuff. The ideas here are my own, but are directly influenced by current world events. When I read Epicenter months ago it seemed like things were much farther off, but now they could be just a few months away.

Joel is a writer and lays out a pretty good version of how he thinks things are going to happen, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that if Israel and Iran go head to head it isn't going to be pretty for the rest of us. If you think I am crazy let me hear it. If you think it is just saber rattling then lets hear that as well.

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